The Terrorist Support Base in Indonesia
Pre-Tsunami
Until recently, the existing evidence pointed to a growing Indonesian support base for global terrorists. In a 1999 U.S. State Department poll, 40% of Indonesian Muslims said that bombing of civilian targets and similar forms of violence were often or sometimes justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies; in a Pew August 2002 poll, that figure fell to 27%. In a May 2003 Pew poll, 58% of Indonesians said that they had a lot or some confidence in Osama Bin Laden to do the right thing regarding world affairs; 8% had similar confidence in President George Bush. In June 2003 BBC poll, 60% of Indonesians said that America was more dangerous than Al Qaeda; 27% said Al Qaeda was more dangerous.
In a 2004 Freedom Institute poll, 16% of Indonesians agreed with recent terrorist bombings in Indonesia, and another 25% refused to disagree. A Freedom Institute's researcher said, "There is a significant number of Indonesians, at least half, [who] do not have a negative reaction to that and they agree with silence at least, or protect this kind of activity." Of the 40% who had heard of Jemaah Islamiyah, one third supported the extremist group.
In an August 2002 Pew poll, 61% of Indonesians said they have a favorable opinion of the United States; in May 2003, that figure fell to 15%. In a December 2004 BBC poll, 38% of Indonesians said that the United States has a mainly positive influence on the world; 51% said mainly negative. The Freedom Institute poll, mentioned above, also apparently measured Indonesian attitudes about the United States; however, according to one report, the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, which funded the poll, will not release the results.
The May 2003 Pew poll also found that 72% of Indonesians opposed U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Hostility to the United States was also increasing. In an August 2002 Pew poll, 61% of Indonesians said they have a favorable opinion of the United States; in May 2003, that figure fell to 15%. In a December 2004 BBC poll, 38% of Indonesians said that the United States has a mainly positive influence on the world; 51% said mainly negative. The Freedom Institute poll, mentioned above, also apparently measured Indonesian attitudes about the United States; however, according to one report, the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, which funded the poll, will not release the results.
Impact of the Tsunami: Terror Free Tomorrow Poll
The tsunami disaster that struck Southeast Asia in December 2004 was tragic at many levels. However, the American response has had a profound influence in Indonesia, based on a poll commissioned by Terror Free Tomorrow in February 2005. In the first substantial shift of public opinion in the Muslim world since the beginning of the United States’ global war on terrorism, more people in the world’s largest Muslim country now favor American efforts against terrorism than oppose them.
In a stunning turnaround of public opinion, support for Osama Bin Laden and terrorism in Indonesia has dropped significantly, while favorable views of the United States have increased. The poll demonstrates that the reason for this positive change is the American response to the tsunami.
Key findings from the poll were:
- For the first time ever in a major Muslim nation, more people favor US-led efforts to fight terrorism than oppose them (40% to 36%). Importantly, those who oppose US efforts against terrorism have declined by half, from 72% in 2003 to just 36% today.
- For the first time ever in a Muslim nation since 9/11, support for Osama Bin Laden has dropped significantly (58% favorable to just 23%).
- 65% of Indonesians now are more favorable to the United States because of the American response to the tsunami, with the highest percentage among people under 30.
- Indeed, 71% of the people who express confidence in Bin Laden are now more favorable to the United States because of American aid to tsunami victims.
Although the poll was extremely informative and promising, it raised numerous critical but unanswered questions, including:
- What can the United States do to sustain the blow to the Indonesian support base for global terrorists? It is clear that U.S. actions can make a significant and immediate difference in eroding the support base for global terrorists. At the same time, the size and strength of the support base can dramatically change in a short period of time. Additional strategies are needed to prevent the support base from rebounding in Indonesia. These strategies may also prove effective in other countries, since the United States can not wait for a disaster to strike the rest of the Muslim world.
- What can the United States do to win over the remaining Indonesians who still support Osama Bin Laden and are hostile to the United States? Even a small percentage of supporters can empower global terrorists; yet, the remaining sympathizers in Indonesia are likely to be the most hard core and hardest to win over.
- Why is there no apparent, clear relationship between views about the U.S. and Bin Laden? Why do some people have favorable views about the U.S but also have confidence in Bin Laden?
- Why do some people have confidence in Bin Laden but do not think attacks on civilians are justified?
- Why do younger people have greater confidence in Bin Laden? The poll showed that 30.7% of Indonesians under 30 years old had confidence in Bin Laden; whereas, the figure was 18.9% for those 40 and older.
- Why do more educated people have greater confidence in Bin Laden? The poll showed Bin Laden support among 29.1% of those with junior/senior secondary education and 25.8% of those with tertiary or higher education; in contrast, support was 17.0% among those with an elementary or lower education.
These issues must be explored through further research.
Sources
1999 State Department: referred to in the 2002 Pew poll (see below); no information on methodology provided
2002 Pew: "predominantly urban;" see Pew
2003 Pew: "predominantly urban;" see Pew
2003 BBC: Jakarta only; see BBC
2004 BBC: Jakarta and Surabaya only; see PIPA
2004 Freedom Institute: The survey itself has not been made public, reportedly because of the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, which funded the survey; see ABC Online
2005 Terror Free Tomorrow: nationwide; see Terror Free Tomorrow
Additional Resources
For the full results of Terror Free Tomorrow’s 2005 poll of Indonesians, click here.
For Terror Free Tomorrow's library of recent articles about Indonesia, click here.
For comparative data on the support base in other countries, click here.